June 17, 2008 - Last week I wrote about what might happen if gas continues its seemingly inevitable march upward, maybe reaching $10 a gallon. There will be changes in our lifestyles, major changes. Some companies will benefit greatly, others will simply go away, unable to evolve with the new reality. Here are more industries that will be affected.

Look for more consolidation in the airlines as costs have to go down to run effectively. Don't expect profits from the industry until after the mergers and acquisitions finish. Post-merger or acquisition airlines will have fewer administrative personnel, fewer stewardesses and stewards on board each flight. Check in will be all by computer.

Package delivery services and the Post Office will raise rates. At some point if these get too high, customers won't order through the mail or online, preferring to buy locally because it's cheaper. The solution: Delivery trucks will have to run on electricity or hydrogen or other efficient fuels but not ethanol or other grain-based liquid. Delivery services not making the transition won't make it, period.

Bicycle sales will rise as will scooters and other gas-sipping modes of transportation. It's already difficult to buy a Vespa as people discover they're easy to ride, fun and very efficient. The Segway will get much more attention. Look for other, new people-movers, especially ones that run on electricity. Watch sales of Tesla, the all electric car manufacturer, skyrocket. GM introduces the Volt (all electric) in 2010. Ford will have an electric, too. All car companies will. They have to. A better fuel for cars is hydrogen. Honda just introduced the FCX Clarity (at least 5 of them anyway) that uses hydrogen. It's thinking: introduce the car and the hydrogen stations will follow. BMW, Ford and Toyota also have working hydrogen models.

Shoe sales will ramp, especially in the walking category. As workers move into cities to be closer to their jobs, they'll want comfortable shoes to get to and from work. Merrell already is doing well with its no-nonsense, all-day comfort designs. Other shoemakers will be offering new models to fill demand.

The Internet will play more of a role in everything from ordering groceries to a college education. Anything that saves people from using private transportation will prosper. The Web will be more disruptive to established businesses as it continues to save time, money and gas for the user. Winners: educational sites, local grocery sites, book sites such as Amazon, apparel sites.

One stop shopping will increase. Wal-Mart is leading the way with its super stores carrying everything from wrenches to Cheetos. If you have to go out and don't want to drive far or stop in many places, the big stores offering almost every product is where you head. The more convenience a store can offer, the better it will do. Costco, Target have a wide variety of goods now. Expect more. Other stores will follow.

Roads will be less crowded. If not from fewer cars, then from smaller cars.

Remember these are thoughts for a world when gas is $10 a gallon (it's over $8 in parts of Europe now). And they reflect experience to date. You can be sure very smart people are devising better cars, better planes, better ways of moving people. We'll see many new and great (some not so great) products come from this latest crisis. Even if gas never reaches $10, some of them will get to market. People will change behaviors.

As they shift into alternative energy sources, the price of gas will probably not go too much lower since Brazil, China and India are quick to buy any oil. But if all countries embrace the new technology (think of how China is much more of a wireless communications country....it simply skipped the whole land line technology), gas may come down drastically. That will only happen if all countries make alternative fuels a priority. So far, that hasn't been shown.

As always, investors need to think about the future, about what might happen, and make adjustments. Right now it's hard to believe that some industries will be here in a decade, especially the ones that depend on gas for profits.

- Ted Allrich